5:56 pm - May 12, 2026
The report could as well have been classified even though it hadn’t been. No one on Capitol Hill seemed ready to address the problems presented by the Pentagon’s climate research, which was quietly shared, internally disputed, and politically awkward. It’s about operational failure and deficiencies in national security, not just about rising waves or melting permafrost.
A new type of vulnerability was described in the study, one brought on by flash floods, extreme temperatures, and deteriorating infrastructure rather than missiles or cyberattacks. The environment is changing more quickly than the defense budget can keep up, and some of the country’s most important military assets are now situated in these areas. In the Marshall Islands, a $1 billion radar facility that is already in danger due to sea level rise, was specifically mentioned. Once referred to as “outliers,” wildfires in California have caused damage to important installations; these incidents are now recognized as reoccurring.
Remote labor became commonplace for civilians throughout the pandemic. The environment on military installations, however, didn’t wait for a response strategy. Extreme weather has caused over 10,000 personnel to be idle since 2018, according to internal estimates. These are disruptions in the physical world, not just warnings. training missions that were canceled. overheated apparatus. Because the runway is submerged or the temperature is higher than what is considered safe, the aircraft was grounded.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Subject | Secret Pentagon climate study examining national security threats |
| Main Concern | Rising climate instability as a “threat multiplier” for U.S. operations |
| Affected Infrastructure | Over 128 coastal bases; radar facility in Marshall Islands |
| Operational Impacts | 10,000+ troops affected by extreme heat or storms since 2018 |
| Strategic Policy Shift | Funding cuts, canceled studies, downplayed climate risks |
| Current Budget Direction | $1.6 billion in cuts from climate initiatives in 2026 proposal |
| Long-Term Risk | Growing global conflicts over water, food, and displacement |
| Key External Reference | Brown University, “Costs of War”: https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu |
For many years, the Pentagon has referred to climate change as a “threat multiplier” in relation to changing national threats. It exacerbates almost everything, including food insecurity, migration, and regional instability, but it doesn’t directly produce conflict. Furthermore, it weakens the framework that makes military preparedness feasible. Now, that framing—once thought to be progressive for a defense agency—is being subtly abandoned.
Early in 2026, the Department of Defense asked for $1.6 billion to be eliminated from what it called “wasteful” climate-related spending. As part of the decision, a $6 million grant for Navy ship decarbonization was canceled. Despite its little size in the big ledger, it was incredibly meaningful. The Navy has been investigating electric and biofuels for decades; these efforts, however gradual, provided a glimpse of a future less dependent on attack-prone oil convoys.
Rather, the pivot feels outdated. As he ordered the suspension of 91 ongoing studies, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth characterized worries about rising temperatures as “climate change crap.” Environmental risk assessments for bases in the Pacific, Southeast, and Arctic regions were among them.
The UK and Denmark are among the other countries that have started investigating green defense technologies through strategic alliances. NATO’s climate security strategy promotes investment in alternative fuels and carbon tracking, notwithstanding its modestness. However, the country with the biggest defense spending in the world, the United States, has veered off course.
I’ve been wondering about a story that was buried deep in the report in recent months: Vida Rivera, a retired Marine, passed out in Virginia while on a training march. In order to be sure she could fix a truck’s air conditioning, she completed two mechanics courses in Afghanistan years later. She was likely more aware than her commanders that heat was more than just uncomfortable. It was disastrous from an operational standpoint.
Rivera had survivalist instincts, not particularly good ones. They reflected what thousands of others silently endure each summer when temperatures rise and missions continue. There is no break in training. Equipment isn’t always reliable. Preparation gradually deteriorates in circumstances that were not anticipated at the time these bases were constructed.
Private researchers are already simulating risk scenarios that mimic the effects of fuel shortages and base floods on mission scheduling by utilizing advanced analytics. They frequently use satellite data and on-the-ground sensor networks in their especially creative forecasts. In line with the study, their findings show that unchecked environmental risk will cost billions of dollars and potentially create strategic openings for competitors to take advantage of.
However, the revised budget’s wording refers to “streamlining.” a courteous euphemism. Foresight is actually being eliminated.
Troops are frequently the first response to early-stage security crises, such as those brought on by starvation, displacement, or aquatic violence. Ecological shock-destabilized regions are seeing an increase in these deployments. Whether in Southeast Asia or the Sahel, the U.S. military is becoming more involved in areas where conventional logistics aren’t viable. Roads are impassable, temperatures are high, and the terrain is degraded. Resilience, not equipment, is what makes a person ready.
Unreliable climate data combined with drastically shortened planning timelines raises the risk of mission failure. There is also little political benefit to acknowledging that atmospheric factors might pose the greatest danger to national defense.
However, there are grounds for hope. The idea of a climate corps—units specially prepared to operate in environmentally hazardous areas—is being promoted by some inside the Pentagon. Sensors, renewable energy sources, and data-driven terrain predicting techniques would be available to these experts. In informal briefings, the concept is becoming more popular while not being official.
Some defense companies have created dashboards that map both personnel deployment timelines and climatic disturbances by incorporating predictive technologies. The technologies are quite good at finding vulnerabilities days or even weeks before they happen. But they are just novelties on the shelf without institutional backing.
In the years ahead, a new type of intelligence will be needed for mission planning. Not only code-breakers and satellites, but hydrologists and climate engineers as well. officers who can convert a meteorological model into a tactical change. It won’t be an option.
Ironically, no organization is more equipped to adjust than the military. It is organized, resource-rich, and disciplined. Its present leadership, however, seems reluctant to take action on the very evidence that it previously supported. Public hearings, not backroom revisions, should have been the result of a covert research like this one.
Furthermore, the consequences will extend beyond briefing rooms when the next disaster floods a runway or drought turns a friendly area into a conduit for refugees.
The most effective armies are more than just their arsenals. Their flexibility defines them. Acknowledging the heat—literally—is the first step toward adapting right now.
Because we need to at least make war less heedlessly harmful if we can’t decarbonize it. This entails paying attention to both the generals and the increasing tides beneath them.
