The End of Smartphones May Be Closer Than Anyone Realizes

It would have sounded ridiculous ten years ago. The notion that the glass rectangle in your pocket, the item you examine before your eyes open fully in the morning, may be deteriorating.

It no longer seems like science fiction, though, after hearing Mark Zuckerberg say that smart glasses will replace phones by 2030. It resembles a CEO making a very big wager.

The scene is almost ritualistic when you enter any subway car in Tokyo or New York: faces lit by blue light, thumbs scrolling, heads bent. The smartphone has evolved into a hand extension. Its eventual disappearance would feel so upsetting for that exact reason.

However, technology hardly ever requests consent before proceeding.

Research on augmented reality has already cost Meta billions of dollars. With the release of gadgets like the Apple Vision Pro, Apple is experimenting with immersive user interfaces that completely do away with the conventional phone screen. It appears that investors don’t think the next computing platform will be affordable. You’ll have it on your face.

Though consumers may not be aware of it, there is a feeling that the industry is subtly getting ready for a post-smartphone future.

The reasoning is alluring. You look at a faint overlay in your field of vision rather than taking out a device. On the sidewalk are directions. Inconspicuously hovering in the corner of your eye are messages. An AI assistant reacts when you speak. Without using your hands. Integrated and seamless.

Voice interfaces, which are already advancing quickly, might be the first to challenge the smartphone’s hegemony. Take note of how frequently people now say “Alexa” or “Hey Siri” instead of typing. The once-revolutionary touchscreen is gradually being circumvented.

Better hardware alone, however, would not be enough to replace smartphones. Habits would have to be broken.

User behavior is notoriously hard to change. Many people wrote off the iPhone as a novelty when it first came out in 2007. Keyboards in the real world were revered. Those keyboards feel archaic now. The change came slowly at first, then suddenly.

The arc of smart glasses might be similar. Early iterations may appear clumsy or even invasive. Battery life will be disappointing. Concerns about privacy will surface, and for good reason. Wearing a gadget that can constantly record, analyze, and project data raises disturbing concerns.

In a world like that, it’s difficult to avoid wondering who controls the data.

Our purchases, locations, and steps are already tracked by smartphones. However, AI-enabled glasses would be placed closer to our eyes, just inches away, and would process our auditory and visual input. It feels different to be intimate. more intrusive. Or maybe just more truthful about how intertwined humans already are with machines.

The cultural aspect is another. The world was compressed into a window the size of the palm of the smartphone. A thumb swipe can be used to access social media feeds, breaking news, banking, and dating. Would wearing smart glasses increase the level of immersion or, at last, lessen the sense of isolation?

By projecting information into the real world rather than removing us from it, Zuckerberg contends that augmented reality could make digital interaction feel more organic. It sounds good. However, it’s still unclear if superimposing digital content on top of reality will lessen or increase distraction.

One could argue that we’ve reached saturation when they observe today’s teens instinctively scrolling while crossing the street. There is such a thing as screen fatigue. The popularity of digital detox retreats is rising. Parents argue over when their kids should get their first cell phone.

The dominance of smartphones may already be reaching its zenith.

Dominant devices have rarely vanished overnight in the past. They disappear into specialized fields. When laptops came along, desktop computers did not disappear. They were experts. While lighter, wearable interfaces handle ambient tasks, smartphones may do the same, leaving the remaining tools for secure communication, photography, and content creation.

We’ve become used to keeping our technology in our hands. A tangible item that you can turn off, silence, or leave behind can provide solace. In contrast, glasses blur boundaries. You put them on. They integrate into your face.

It seems unlikely that the eventual demise of smartphones will initially feel liberating. It could be confusing. As though something familiar has subtly vanished.

However, there are compelling incentives. The margins on hardware are getting tighter. Slab-style phone innovation has reached a standstill, with slightly improved cameras and marginally brighter screens. The excitement has moved to another place.

Like the iPod before it, it’s possible that the smartphone is nearing its mature stage; it’s not quite outdated yet, but it’s no longer the cutting edge.

The conclusion might not seem dramatic. The iPhone will not have a funeral. People will just take their money out of their pockets less frequently instead. Without touching, notifications will show up. Interfaces will vanish into thin air.

The lowered heads on the subway will eventually rise, maybe sooner than anyone anticipates, to be replaced by lenses subtly projecting a fresh layer of reality rather than by empty hands.