9:50 pm - February 18, 2026
Bitcoin could plunge to $40,000 in the coming months as the cryptocurrency winter extends, according to John Blank, chief strategist at Zacks Investment Research. The forecast represents a potential 49% decline from current levels, with Blank outlining several factors that could drive the leading cryptocurrency deeper into bear market territory during an appearance on CNBC on Monday.
The cryptocurrency has already suffered significant losses, falling below $75,000 on Monday to reach its lowest level since President Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2024. Bitcoin is now down 37% from its peak of approximately $126,000 reached last year, officially entering bear market territory in November amid heightened risk-off sentiment among investors.
Historical Bitcoin Winter Patterns Suggest Extended Downturn
According to Blank, crypto winters typically persist for 12 to 18 months based on well-established technical patterns. The current downturn could still be in its relatively early stages, with the strategist suggesting that bitcoin might reach the $40,000 level within the next six to eight months if the rout continues at its current trajectory.
The cryptocurrency finished January with its fourth consecutive month of losses, marking its longest losing streak in approximately seven years. Blank stated that he reached his $40,000 estimate by analyzing the trajectory of bitcoin’s recent highs and lows, noting the market has already declined from $125,000 to $76,000.
Strategy Holdings Present Potential Selling Pressure
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, has emerged as a potential source of downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market. In late 2025, Strategy CEO Phong Le indicated that the firm could be forced to sell some of its bitcoin holdings as a “last resort” if certain financial metrics deteriorate significantly.
The company currently holds 713,502 bitcoin, representing approximately 3% of the total supply, according to information on Strategy’s website. The bitcoin treasury company monitors its mNAV ratio, which measures Strategy’s stock price relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings and currently stands at around 1.1.
However, if this ratio drops below one, the company may need to liquidate portions of its cryptocurrency holdings. Blank questioned when forced selling and liquidations might occur to drive bitcoin to $40,000, suggesting this scenario could unfold quickly or more gradually over the next six to eight months.
Market Liquidity Concerns Intensify Volatility
Declining liquidity has contributed significantly to downward pressure on bitcoin and increased volatility in the crypto’s price in recent months. Blank pointed to the theory that bitcoin operates as an “inelastic” market, where supply remains unaffected by price changes and fresh sources of demand are needed to support the token.
Additionally, bitcoin’s market depth, a key measure of liquidity and the market’s ability to absorb large trades, has declined approximately 30% from its peak in October, according to data from analytics firm Kaiko cited by Bloomberg. This reduced liquidity can amplify price movements in both directions.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency has experienced its biggest liquidation event in history as traders shifted to risk-off positions. The combination of waning demand, reduced liquidity, and potential forced selling from major holders has created a challenging environment for bitcoin investors.
Market participants will be monitoring whether bitcoin can stabilize at current levels or if it will continue its descent toward the $40,000 target that Blank has forecast. The timeline remains uncertain, though the strategist suggests the decline could materialize within six to eight months if historical crypto winter patterns hold true.
