Why AbbVie is Betting its Future on a Next-Generation Obesity Drug with Unprecedented Speed

AbbVie’s identity was largely dependent on a single molecule for many years. The immunology blockbuster Humira, which was once the world’s best-selling medication, brought in so much money for so long that the company became synonymous with the Humira company. That era is coming to an end. Not in a big way. Not in a disastrous way. Quietly, as is typically the case. Sales of Humira are predicted to decline to a mere $2.9 billion in 2026. AbbVie’s follow-on immunology medications, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, are expected to generate $31 billion this year alone, more than making up the difference. However, it is evident that the company is considering their own future. This is how obesity comes about.

It’s an unusual move. AbbVie did not attempt to develop its own GLP-1 to compete with Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy or Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. One of the biggest commercial success stories in pharmaceutical history has already been achieved by those medications, which are both gut-hormone mimics. Instead, AbbVie entered into a licensing agreement for a compound known as GUB014295, now rebranded as ABBV-295, with Gubra, a Danish biotech that no one outside the industry had heard of. The deal had a maximum value of $2.2 billion. Instead of GLP-1, the medication targets amylin. distinct hormone, distinct pathway, and distinct profile of adverse effects. This might be AbbVie’s most astute change in years. They might be entering a knife fight with a more modern type of knife.

Investors had something tangible to chew on when Phase 1 results were released in March of this year. Patients who received weekly doses lost between 7.75% and 9.79% of their body weight over a 12-week period. The bi-weekly and monthly dosing groups showed comparable numbers. To put things in perspective, those are impressive early-phase results for a medication that is still years away from Phase 3, and the company claimed that their tolerability profile was superior to that of first-generation GLP-1 medications. Clinicians have also been quietly worried about the muscle-sparing angle; one of Wegovy and Zepbound’s frequent criticisms is that patients lose muscle along with fat, which becomes more important as people age.

This begins to resemble an actual identity shift rather than an opportunistic wager when it comes to the manufacturing commitment. AbbVie declared in March that it would invest $380 million in new facilities for active pharmaceutical ingredients on its campus in North Chicago. In the spring of 2026, ground is broken. By 2029, it will be fully operational. Specifically designed to support next-generation neuroscience and obesity products, the facilities incorporate AI into production. It’s a very particular collection of words. If you don’t think the drugs coming down your pipeline will require the space, you don’t spend that much money on concrete, equipment, and federal permits. It is the closest thing a pharmaceutical company can do to a face-to-face handshake with the future.

This has a noteworthy cultural component. Jeffrey Stewart, the chief commercial officer of AbbVie, made a subtly intriguing remark during the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in January. He proposed that many of the same patients who visit dermatology offices for Botox are also contemplating weight-loss procedures. Through Allergan Aesthetics, AbbVie already has those clinics integrated into its commercial engine. In addition to being a science story, it’s also a distribution story. AbbVie has a deeper understanding of the clinician-patient relationship in aesthetics than most of its rivals, despite Eli Lilly having superior early data and a significant first-mover advantage.

Nevertheless, the skeptics have a strong argument. The market for obesity is rapidly becoming crowded. For its own amylin analog, cagrilintide, Novo Nordisk already has Phase 3 data. A Phase 2 readout from Zealand Pharma is anticipated later this year. Eli Lilly has an amylin program of its own. Roche, Regeneron, and AstraZeneca are all circling the area. ABBV-295 must demonstrate its strength against each of them as well as against the next iteration of the GLP-1 incumbents. Whether a better tolerability profile is sufficient to wean patients off of medications that are already effective is still up for debate. There’s a reason why patients on Wegovy and Zepbound are devoted. Metabolic therapies are not changed carelessly.

As I watch this develop, I get the impression that AbbVie isn’t attempting to outperform Eli Lilly in terms of weight loss. In a market that is predicted to reach $150 billion in annual sales within ten years, being the strong second is not a bad place to be. It’s aiming to be the second option that patients reach for when the first one stops working. It’s truly unclear if ABBV-295 will live up to its initial promise. Less ambiguity surrounds AbbVie’s decision about its next phase, which it is prepared to demonstrate by investing billions of dollars and constructing real factories. The Humira business is evolving into something new. Slowly, methodically, and with greater conviction than most people realize.