The Global Demand for Weight-Loss Treatments Is Surging

Observing the rapid growth of the medical market is almost disorienting. The majority of people were unaware of semaglutide three years ago. These days, it’s the topic of dinner discussions, celebrity rumors, Senate hearings, and Wall Street projections that continue to rise with an almost unsettling assurance. The truth is that no one has a clear idea of how this will end. The demand for weight-loss treatments is rising globally in ways that analysts are still struggling to fully map.

Based on actual sales of about $15 billion in 2024 and an earlier estimate of $105 billion, Morgan Stanley now projects that the global market for obesity drugs could reach a peak of $150 billion around 2035.

These figures are substantial enough to be nearly abstract, but they represent something tangible and human: millions of people worldwide who have made the decision to have access to these medications, frequently at great personal cost and frequently without any assurance that insurance will cover their costs.

Adoption has been particularly rapid in Brazil and India, despite the fact that the majority of patients are paying for their own care. Paying hundreds of dollars a month out of pocket for a medication demonstrates the desperation and hope that these drugs are carrying.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the two businesses at the center of it all, are in the unusual position of being unable to produce their goods quickly enough. Although the shortages that hindered sales for the majority of 2023 have somewhat subsided, supply is still a major obstacle.

Although anyone who has recently attempted to fill a Wegovy prescription may wonder how much progress has truly been made on the ground, both companies have been making significant investments in manufacturing capacity, and it appears that the production side is gradually catching up to demand.

The depth of the clinical argument supporting this market sets it apart from most pharmaceutical booms. Although these medications were first authorized for the treatment of weight loss, the evidence from ongoing trials continues to strengthen the case. There is now proof that GLP-1 agonists can treat sleep apnea, help control hypertension and kidney disease, and lower the risk of heart attack and stroke.

Applications in Alzheimer’s, cancer, and various neuropsychiatric disorders are being investigated. Every encouraging finding from a new study strengthens the case for insurance and employer coverage, and when coverage expansion occurs in larger quantities, patient numbers will rise sharply.

It is uncommon for a medication to simultaneously capture the interest of millions of people, according to Michael Kleinrock of IQVIA. To say otherwise would be an understatement. Observing a prescription medication gain the kind of cultural prominence that these treatments currently enjoy—appearing in late-night monologues, fashion commentary, and economic analysis all within a single week—is truly innovative.

It turns out that clothing companies are keeping a close eye on this. Grocery stores, beverage companies, and restaurant chains are all attempting to model what happens to consumer behavior when a significant portion of the population is taking a medication that significantly reduces appetite.

The growth story might be more important outside of the United States. Approximately 1% of the eligible population is currently adopted internationally. According to Morgan Stanley, that percentage will rise to 10% over the course of the next ten years, amounting to a $70 billion market on its own. Asia, especially China and Japan, have been identified by equity analyst Thibault Boutherin as markets with significant potential and low penetration.

The next stage of this industry may resemble a global infrastructure story rather than a pharmaceutical one, involving pricing strategies, regulatory negotiations, and distribution networks that operate across widely disparate healthcare systems.

It’s also important to pay attention to the pipeline behind Novo and Lilly. According to IQVIA, more than 80 experimental obesity medications have been tested on humans. While some focus on different pathways, the majority are based on the same GLP-1 hormonal mechanism. Later this year, mid-stage trial results for Amgen’s Maritide, which combines GLP-1 with GIP receptor targeting, should be available.

Additionally, Lilly is working on retatrutide, which incorporates glucagon. Amycretin is being developed by Novo. There is genuine competition, which will eventually drive down prices. Ironically, this could be the one development that speeds up adoption worldwide the most.

However, there are complications that are worth enduring. Regulators are still working to control the parallel market created by the emergence of compounded versions of these medications, especially compounded tirzepatide and semaglutide.

Under FDA exception rules, compounding pharmacies are allowed to make substitute versions of name-brand medications when they are in short supply.

As of late 2024, the FDA had received hundreds of reports of adverse events related to compounded versions, and there are valid concerns regarding inconsistent dosage, various salt forms, and unlisted added ingredients.

The American Diabetes Association advises against using compounded versions that are not FDA-approved. Because the risks are actual rather than hypothetical, that recommendation is in place.

Nevertheless, it’s difficult to avoid feeling that something truly important is changing in the ways that medicine, markets, and human behavior interact. The adoption curve that analysts are forecasting follows trends observed in technology cycles; Morgan Stanley’s research specifically makes reference to smartphones.

What was once an early-adopter luxury turns into something much more commonplace as new products gain familiarity, distribution issues are resolved, and prices eventually decline.

It’s still unclear if the market for weight-loss medications neatly follows that arc. Economic, political, and regulatory factors could significantly slow things down. However, the underlying demand is not going away, as evidenced by the sheer number of obese or overweight individuals searching for solutions worldwide. Due to the constant need, the market is booming. At last, the drugs appeared.